NBA Playoffs: The Biggest First Round Upsets Over The Past 20 Years

Big shots. The world’s best basketball teams. Sold out crowds. Clutch plays. 

The playoffs are finally upon us. 

And we can’t wait to see who will be raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy come June.

But before that, let’s enjoy the first round. 

What makes the first round special? Potential upsets. An eight or seven seed getting the best of their higher-ranked adversary just doesn’t happen too often. Maybe they’ll snag a game here or there. But to take a whole series - that’s almost unheard of. 

In fact, the eighth seed has only beaten the first seed five times during the NBA’s 75-year history and only three times during the past two decades. Which makes it all the more exciting when it does happen.

In hopes of a highly contested first round of playoff action, we’ve compiled a list of our favorite first-round upsets of the past twenty years. 

Guess which one’s first (basketball lifers already know!).

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5. 2012 Bulls (1)  vs. 76ers (8)

In 2012 the Chicago Bulls finished the season with the best record in the league (tied with the Spurs). They were also captained by the league’s MVP, Derrick Rose. 

They finished in the top-five both offensively (5th Ortg) and defensively (2nd Drtg). The team was a true powerhouse and deserving of the first seed.

The 76ers, on the other hand, while a strong defensive team (3rd Drtg), finished in the bottom third on offense (20th Ortg) and barely won over half of their games. 

And it showed, as the Bulls beat the 76ers in Game 1, grabbing the lead early in the first quarter and never letting up. 

However, the series’ defining moment happened late in the fourth quarter, when Rose suffered a season-ending (and career-altering) injury in the final minute of Game 1. While the Bulls were able to secure the win, the injury swung the series dramatically, with the 76ers winning four of the next five games to beat the Bulls in 6. 

This matchup only makes the list because of how rare it is that an eight-seed defeats a one-seed. But what this upset really brings to light is how important Derrick Rose was to that Bulls team. 

Rose averaged a team-high 22 ppg and 8 apg, scoring a game-high 23 points and dishing out 9 assists in the Bulls’ 103 - 91 win. With Derrick Rose out, the 76ers were able to hold the Bulls to only 84 points per game - down from their season average of 96. 

The dismantling of the Rose-less Bulls by the eight-seed 76ers only goes to show that Derrick Rose was a very deserving MVP.

4. 2014: Raptors (3) vs. Nets (6)

Had the Nets not underperformed in the regular season, this matchup would not make the list. To start the season, it would’ve been called an upset if the Raptors had beat the Nets  - not the other way around. 

But the Nets were one the most disappointing regular-season teams in league history. The team, which featured Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Darren Williams, and Joe Johnson, failed to meet the high expectations set for the team and people began to wonder whether the unit may be washed. 

They were mediocre on both ends of the floor and their age showed: finishing with the fifth slowest pace in the NBA.

The Raptors on the other hand were a hot up-and-coming team, enjoying their first playoff berth since the 2007-08 season. Their young stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry were able to lead the team all the way to a top-ten offensive and defensive rating and the third seed in the Eastern Conference.

But, as it happened, the Nets were able to redeem their disappointing regular season performance with this upset. It was a spectacle to watch, as the two teams traded the first four games. Then the Raptors went up 3-2 in Game 5 with a strong showing from Lowry. But the Nets snagged the final two games, proving that the championship pedigree of Garnett, Pierce and co. was just too much for the young-buck Raptors. 

In fact, the 36-year-old Paul Pierce made the series’ defining play, blocking a potential game-winner by Kyle Lowry in the paint to seal the Game 7 victory. 

3. 2016: Trail Blazers (5) vs. Clippers (4)

On first sight, this one may not appear to be a real upset at all. A fifth seed beating a fourth seed? Big deal. The four and the five seed are often a toss-up - separated by two or three games in the win column. The only real advantage the four-seed has is home-court advantage. 

But it was different here. The Clippers were ahead a whole nine games at the end of the season and had the sixth-best net rating in the NBA. The Trailblazers only finished thirteenth-best. 

Further, the Clippers had a star-studded roster featuring Chris Paul, prime Blake Griffin & DeAndre Jordan, Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, and NBA champion Paul Pierce. The team clearly had championship aspirations and expectations were through the roof.

The Trailblazers, on the other hand, were just a middle-of-the-pack team led by two young guards in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. 

When looking at how the Clippers let this one slip, one has to mention the injuries. The Clippers missed their two best players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Both were injured in Game 4, which marked the series’ tipping point. With the Trailblazers snatching up four games in a row to  win the series in 6. 

This one primarily makes the list because of the high expectations everyone had for the Clippers. The series is a perfect summary of that mid-2010s Clippers team that had all the pieces, but could never quite get it done. Injuries and drama just always seemed to stand in the way.  

2. 2011: Grizzlies (8) vs. Spurs (1)

We’re not used to seeing the Spurs on a not-top list. But, yes, the Spurs are one of the five teams to drop a playoffs series to an eight-seed. The Grit-and-Grind Grizzlies just proved to be too much for an aging Spurs roster in 2008, as the Grizzlies beat out the Spurs in only 6 games. 

How did that happen?

Well, first of all, the Spurs weren’t at full strength (a re-occurring theme of this list). Ginobili missed the first game due to an injury (which was later revealed to be a broken arm) and played through it for the rest of the series.  

Further, the Grizzlies just matched up well with the Spurs. Their two bigs, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, did a good job containing the aging Tim Duncan, who averaged less than 13 points for the series. They also put up a combined 36 ppg themselves to go with their 21 rpg. 

More than anything else it seems like the Spurs simply ran out of gas. While they finished the season with 61 wins and the league’s second-best record, they had an alarming slide towards the end of the season. San Antonio lost seven of their last twelve games, in which they succumbed to a five-game losing streak (a first in Tim Duncan’s career). 

Sometimes, it seems, you just need some fresh legs under you. And the Spurs did well in drafting a Kawhi Leonard to revitalize their roster during the subsequent draft. Allowing them to win the championship only three years later without having to go through a lengthy re-build. 

As for the Grizzlies, it was the first time in franchise history that they made it out of the first round. And they were only barely inched out in seven games by an OKC team that featured Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Serge Ibaka in the second round. Respect.

1. 2007: Warriors (8) vs. Mavericks (1) 

We’ve arrived at the pinnacle of first-round upsets: The We Believe Warriors taking it to the Dallas Mavericks. 

Let’s set the scene.

In 2006-07 the Mavericks had one of the best regular seasons of all time. Right up there with the 73-win Golden State Warriors and the 72-win Chicago Bulls. 

They won 67 games and had three separate double-digit winning streaks, including one for seventeen games. They also had a span where they won 61 of 68 games. 

More: the team had a top-five offense (2nd Ortg) and defense (5th Drtg).

That’s not it: They had the league’s MVP, Dirk Nowitzki, who averaged 25 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting splits. 

And lastly, they had just been to the Finals the year before. This season had to be it. Championship or bust. 

The Warriors, on the other hand, were just a measly eight-seed that barely finished over .500. They were a team full of journeymen that had little experience playing on the same team. And it was the franchise’s first time in the playoffs after a twelve-year hiatus. 

But nonetheless, the Warriors beat the Mavericks in 6. 

How did they do it?

It seems that the Warriors just had the Maverick's number. They swept the regular-season series against the Mavs, which is notable especially because the Mavs only lost 15 games. Meaning they lost twenty percent of their games to one team - a team that wasn’t very good. 

Why did they match up so well with the Mavs? There are a number of things to consider. First, Don Nelson, the coach for the Warriors, had coached the Mavericks for 7 years (1998-2005), including five seasons with Nowitzki. That presumably gave him the upper hand concerning strategy going into games.

Second, the Mavs were a methodical half-court team, with the third slowest pace in the league. The Warriors were able to take advantage with their young, athletic players and Don Nelson’s run-and-gun style, which led the league in pace. 

Further, the Warriors implemented a number of unconventional styles. In many ways the Warriors were ahead of their time: They shot the most threes per game at 24 per game and played a lot of small-ball with Matt Barnes or Al Harrington playing the 5. 

This allowed them to put non-traditional bigs on Nowitzki, which worked to their benefit, as Nowitzki himself wasn’t a traditional big. As a result, Dirk really struggled. He only averaged 20 ppg (five fewer than during the regular season) on awful shooting splits: 38% from the field and 20% from range. Ouch. You expect more than that from your MVP.

But the Warriors just really came to play. Baron Davis, the series’ poster child, was an absolute force scoring 25 ppg, 6 rpg, 6apg, while shooting over 50% from the field and 45% from three. Stephen Jackson also brought the heat, with 23 ppg while hitting 19 of 40 threes during the series (48%).

It was an all-out effort from one of the grittiest teams we’ve seen in recent times. And with that heartfelt performance, the We Believe Warriors are forever enshrined as one of the most exciting basketball phenomena ever.

Honorable Mentions: 2013: Warriors (6) vs. Nuggets (3), 2013, 2003: Celtics (6) vs. Pacers (3), 2011: Hawks (5) vs. Magic (4), 2009: Mavericks (6) vs. Spurs (3) 

Not every team can force an upset – and as the playoffs go on your favorite team has a good chance of being eliminated. But worry not – there's always next year. Go ahead and get ready with your favorite team's gear in our NBA Shop.